Saturday, November 28, 2015

It's a seller's market: Don't look back at $7 corn and $14 beans and wonder why you didn't sell those numbers going into harvest!

USDA cut the corn and soybean crop estimates in the Aug. 11 Crop Production Report, but the market has had two minds about the...

Since the direction of the market for the remainder of the crop year depends mostly upon the size of the crops, the Aug. 11 USDA Crop Production Report is a big deal.

The casual view from the windshield is of good crops. The reality is that we are very late, however, and that exposes us to less yield and fears of maturity. A frost scare the end of September would change things a lot.

The grain market needs speculators, but they are fickle. They will set a price to take a profit and liquidate. If there are a lot of them following some trading company's advice, the market can be adversely affected in a short time. They may even reverse positions, putting huge pressure on the market.

The trouble with fundamental news coming from the government is that the market is forced to trade them as fact. Never mind that Ohio traders do not believe the acres said to be planted in Ohio. They are right until they are proven wrong.

The ugly reality in the Buckeye State: Ohio farmers will have a small crop, but the rest of the nation will not.

The shutdown of Bionol, the ethanol plant in Clearfield, Pa., has thrown a monkey wrench into grain marketing in the East currently. A plant...

When the weather broke, U.S. farmers did what they are good at doing, which is running day and night when they can, and sleeping next winter. The results were mixed, and a little confusing to the markets.

Crop progress? Good temperatures now will still give us a normal crop. This will mostly be true for next week, then we go downhill fast.