Channeling Little Orphan Annie and Gone With the Wind to stay positive in this grain market.
Our short supply for the old grain crop is leading into fundamental numbers that make us think the tight supply continues for the next year.
It’s a seller’s market: Don’t look back at $7 corn and $14 beans and wonder why you didn’t sell those numbers going into harvest!
USDA cut the corn and soybean crop estimates in the Aug. 11 Crop Production Report, but the market has had two minds about the numbers. Initial reaction was for higher prices, then lower prices, then higher prices. This morning, Tuesday, the mood seems negative again. USDA now puts the corn crop at 12.914 billion bushels. […]
Since the direction of the market for the remainder of the crop year depends mostly upon the size of the crops, the Aug. 11 USDA Crop Production Report is a big deal.
The casual view from the windshield is of good crops. The reality is that we are very late, however, and that exposes us to less yield and fears of maturity. A frost scare the end of September would change things a lot.
The grain market needs speculators, but they are fickle. They will set a price to take a profit and liquidate. If there are a lot of them following some trading company’s advice, the market can be adversely affected in a short time. They may even reverse positions, putting huge pressure on the market.
The trouble with fundamental news coming from the government is that the market is forced to trade them as fact. Never mind that Ohio traders do not believe the acres said to be planted in Ohio. They are right until they are proven wrong.
The ugly reality in the Buckeye State: Ohio farmers will have a small crop, but the rest of the nation will not.
The shutdown of Bionol, the ethanol plant in Clearfield, Pa., has thrown a monkey wrench into grain marketing in the East currently. A plant that uses 100,000 bushels of corn a day is certainly the 600-pound gorilla in local markets. Producers, elevators and traders are scrambling to work out the problems the shutdown creates. The […]
When the weather broke, U.S. farmers did what they are good at doing, which is running day and night when they can, and sleeping next winter. The results were mixed, and a little confusing to the markets.
Crop progress? Good temperatures now will still give us a normal crop. This will mostly be true for next week, then we go downhill fast.
Continued rain across the Midwest dominates all thinking about marketing these days. There was virtually no progress in planting last week, and will be none expected this week.
Ahead of the USDA Prospective Plantings Report, we have estimates of large increases in corn acres and significant decreases in soybean acres.
So, last week I said the rally was over, but I still hadn’t heard the sounds of It’s Over!, my favorite Roy Orbison song. Then, the market sparked up again. So, now what do I write? That I was correct, because the market appeared to be over, but wasn’t? Or that I was wrong? Or, […]
Factors outside markets seemed to be helping grain prices: the weak dollar, the high crude price, the Libyan situation were all cited as reasons for high prices. And now, the focus of the world is on Japan and the catastrophe there.
Instead of grain marketing insight, Marlin Clark shares a different story this week — a story that is more important than the price of corn, and we’re privileged to share it.
Even one of the strongest of chart signals did not permanently break the corn rally last week. This market has not been shot, stabbed, or bludgeoned into submission so far. It has a life of its own, maybe helped by the outside markets. While petroleum futures were making a record one-day move in reaction to […]
The reality is that supply is going to get tighter as the market year goes on. This is driving corn prices toward the record highs of the 2008 year.
Not even Marvin Gaye can tell us what’s goin’ on in the grain markets these days.