If there is one thing to talk about in the grain markets, it is volatility.
Prices crashed and burned Monday, and mostly are showing follow-through Tuesday. This is the biggest correction in a long time, and it is unwanted by anyone trying to buy grain or anyone trying to sell grain.
Everyone expects me to tell them the future of the grain markets, and the future is murky to me.
So, it is a typical Tuesday morning. Here at 9 a.m., I have made the fresh-ground one-third real Colombian Supreme and two-thirds decaf hazelnut coffee. I have turned my contracts in to Bruce. I have talked to a dog food plant about a misapplied ticket and to a trucker about pickup numbers. I have talked […]
The stock market took another dive, and it took the grains with it.
Watching the grain markets these days is like watching that optimistic kid digging through that pile of manure: There must be a pony in here somewhere! Somewhere in the pile of manure that is the Chicago Board of Trade these days (I am waiting for their representative to Google this and give me a call!), […]
There is nothing in the grain commodity markets to indicate a return to what we now know are high prices.
A few weeks ago I said the bottom would be put in this sick market when the trade realized that the crop production estimate for corn and beans was too high. I am marking my diary that I finally got something right. Mark your calendars that the low is in. On the night of Oct. […]
The soybean harvest is dragging along and corn harvest is having trouble getting fired up. Meanwhile, there is no enthusiasm for the crop in the Chicago Board of Trade building on LaSalle Street in Chicago. USDA last week pronounced larger crops than expected in corn and beans. I remain dubious, as I watch the Bellevue […]
When a grain trader talks about harvest pressure, he is referring to the effect on the futures markets on the Chicago Board of Trade brought about by farmers taking grain to town and elevators selling futures to hedge it. The effect is normally to force down the price of futures since there is more need […]
The market used to be bleeding lower. The bleeding became a massive hemorrhage yesterday, Oct. 6, on the Chicago Board of Trade as the commodities were all down sharply, with corn and beans down the limit. With corn down 30 cents to 4.24 December futures yesterday, and with the soybeans down 70 at 9.22, we […]
Last week in this space we looked at the “outside markets” as an effect on our grain markets. Recently, they have been a dominating reason for volatile prices. Trading on Sept. 29 put an exclamation point on the effect non-agricultural, non-supply and demand factors can have on markets. On Sept. 29, Congress did not pass […]
Based on the fundamentals and the technicals both, we should have been lower Sept. 22. What happened? Outside markets happened, with a vengeance.
The corn downtrend has continued for 11 days. There is a little satisfaction in that, since in my last column I said that would be the expected trend. I would rather have been wrong, since I need some corn. Last week, we looked at the long-term seasonal trends and determined that normally we would have […]
Here are grain merchandiser Marlin Clark’s conclusions from the current market. First, hindsight is 20/20. Second, timing is more important than actual prices; and, third, the party is over for this year.
One casualty of our record grain markets this year on the Chicago Board of Trade this year is the adjective. We have worn out the old ones, and they no longer have the power to shock us.
The mood has changed in the markets and we still have not seen the end of the price declines that have characterized trading for a month. A month ago, it was all about the flooding — the cap on a wild market that had given us all-time high prices when everything that could be bullish […]
Any way you look at it, July has been a tough month in Chicago. The LaSalle Street losers have seen corn down $2.63, soybeans down $2.79 1/2 and wheat down nearly $2. All of these commodities bounced back, but the results have been grim for those on the long side of this market. Grains have […]
What a difference a few days make! I have said that before and I probably will again. A few days in the corn markets on the Chicago Board of Trade have made over $1.15 difference, and it is down. That would be all the market range for a year or two normally, but we did […]
December corn prices made new all-time highs for eight days in a row.