Andy Warhol said we would all have 15 minutes of fame. He owes me 13 and a half.
As we wait for the USDA Planting Intentions Report, which is due March 31, we are seeing bullish enthusiasm return to the markets.
The basic problem with writing a grain marketing column for (gulp) 22 years is that readers start to assume the writer knows something. The danger is actually that the writer starts to think he knows something.
We seem to be locked into trading ranges on the Chicago Board of Trade. In absence of news, the market cycles higher and lower, leaving few clues to assist our trading.
If there is one thing to talk about in the grain markets, it is volatility.
Prices crashed and burned Monday, and mostly are showing follow-through Tuesday. This is the biggest correction in a long time, and it is unwanted by anyone trying to buy grain or anyone trying to sell grain.
Everyone expects me to tell them the future of the grain markets, and the future is murky to me.
So, it is a typical Tuesday morning. Here at 9 a.m., I have made the fresh-ground one-third real Colombian Supreme and two-thirds decaf hazelnut coffee. I have turned my contracts in to Bruce. I have talked to a dog food plant about a misapplied ticket and to a trucker about pickup numbers. I have talked […]
The stock market took another dive, and it took the grains with it.
Watching the grain markets these days is like watching that optimistic kid digging through that pile of manure: There must be a pony in here somewhere! Somewhere in the pile of manure that is the Chicago Board of Trade these days (I am waiting for their representative to Google this and give me a call!), […]
There is nothing in the grain commodity markets to indicate a return to what we now know are high prices.
A few weeks ago I said the bottom would be put in this sick market when the trade realized that the crop production estimate for corn and beans was too high. I am marking my diary that I finally got something right. Mark your calendars that the low is in. On the night of Oct. […]
The soybean harvest is dragging along and corn harvest is having trouble getting fired up. Meanwhile, there is no enthusiasm for the crop in the Chicago Board of Trade building on LaSalle Street in Chicago. USDA last week pronounced larger crops than expected in corn and beans. I remain dubious, as I watch the Bellevue […]
When a grain trader talks about harvest pressure, he is referring to the effect on the futures markets on the Chicago Board of Trade brought about by farmers taking grain to town and elevators selling futures to hedge it. The effect is normally to force down the price of futures since there is more need […]
The market used to be bleeding lower. The bleeding became a massive hemorrhage yesterday, Oct. 6, on the Chicago Board of Trade as the commodities were all down sharply, with corn and beans down the limit. With corn down 30 cents to 4.24 December futures yesterday, and with the soybeans down 70 at 9.22, we […]
Last week in this space we looked at the “outside markets” as an effect on our grain markets. Recently, they have been a dominating reason for volatile prices. Trading on Sept. 29 put an exclamation point on the effect non-agricultural, non-supply and demand factors can have on markets. On Sept. 29, Congress did not pass […]
Based on the fundamentals and the technicals both, we should have been lower Sept. 22. What happened? Outside markets happened, with a vengeance.
The corn downtrend has continued for 11 days. There is a little satisfaction in that, since in my last column I said that would be the expected trend. I would rather have been wrong, since I need some corn. Last week, we looked at the long-term seasonal trends and determined that normally we would have […]
Here are grain merchandiser Marlin Clark’s conclusions from the current market. First, hindsight is 20/20. Second, timing is more important than actual prices; and, third, the party is over for this year.
One casualty of our record grain markets this year on the Chicago Board of Trade this year is the adjective. We have worn out the old ones, and they no longer have the power to shock us.