This has been the summer of worrying about maturing crops, of enjoying the rains that were filling the soybeans and struggling to bale hay without getting it rained on three times.
Crunch time in the grain markets: If we confirm a huge crop with early harvest, the lows are not yet in.
Grain prices have mostly continued lower the last week, although wheat shows signs of a bottom and the soybeans have had erratic trading that seems like indecision day-traders taking profits.
After the June 30 USDA acreage and stocks reports, we are looking at the worst one-day trading in years, and the market is struggling to decide what low prices really are.
It is hard to argue with the direction of the corn market, which has been down. It is also hard to envision a scenario where we can justify a big weather market.
Prices continue to slip lower on the Chicago Board of Trade as the traders get the impression that the weather is perfect and that we will have a record crop. At this point, the traders are right. The crops got planted, although Ohio still has 9 percent to go, 2 percent behind the five-year average. […]
China has rejected some U.S. corn, not elevators/processors warning farmers: We will not be accepting “grain containing unapproved GMO traits, including Agrisure Viptera (MIR-162) and Duracade.”
The planting reality is that we caught up this week in good weather, and if the sun shines and we get a little rain on time, we will continue to expect big crops.
The grain market response to the planting progress has been a little ugly.
Delayed planting across the country has led to a weather market, and that is dangerous for farmers and traders alike.
We took a short ride in the car at 1 a.m., just around the circle drive to prove that even if the moon was overhead of the house, we would never see it in the overcast.
USDA planting report afterglow: Unless there are amazing discrepancies from the expectations, the market spends one day reacting, then we go back to business.
Grain markets are anxious to find out what the USDA Planting Intentions Report will have say how many corn and soybeans acres are expected for the 2014 growing year.
Both the bull action and the bear action in recent grain markets come from the Russian Bear.
All three major commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade have shown signs of an uptrend for a few weeks.
Even while we talk of the prospect of acres changing from corn to beans, in reality, the farmers have already ordered seed and made that decision.
Grain prices have slowly worked higher on the Chicago Board of Trade, but it remains to be seen if we can continue to firm up prices.
Corn has gotten back toward the top of the trading range it has been in for the last two months, but that is about it.
The long MLK weekend seemed to be an excuse for soybean speculators to rethink the bullishness that came out of the Jan. 10th USDA reports.
For the last couple of weeks I have been saying that only the March Planting Intentions Report from USDA can help this market. My idea has been that I don’t see bullish news anywhere on the horizon. But, I do think that farmers will like $13 soybeans better than $4 corn.