Saturday, June 25, 2016

Phones are not ringing in cash grain trading offices across the Midwest, and when farmers get together, they talk about why they did not sell $4.50 corn when they had the chance.

U.S. grain prices continue to anticipate a huge harvest by going lower. We keep hoping the bottom is in on the charts, but then we slip lower.

The grain market is just "mostly dead." We still have the race to find out what the average crop is. If we have over-estimated the size, prices will stabilize. If the huge crop is really rolling in, the worst is still ahead of us.

For the last month traders, processors, and farmers have been frozen by our limbo market, wondering how low we can go.

For the last month traders, processors, and farmers have been frozen by our limbo market, wondering how low we can go. We have focused...

This has been the summer of worrying about maturing crops, of enjoying the rains that were filling the soybeans and struggling to bale hay without getting it rained on three times.

Crunch time in the grain markets: If we confirm a huge crop with early harvest, the lows are not yet in.

Grain prices have mostly continued lower the last week, although wheat shows signs of a bottom and the soybeans have had erratic trading that seems like indecision day-traders taking profits.

After the June 30 USDA acreage and stocks reports, we are looking at the worst one-day trading in years, and the market is struggling to decide what low prices really are.

It is hard to argue with the direction of the corn market, which has been down. It is also hard to envision a scenario where we can justify a big weather market.
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