Look for record global grain crops

WASHINGTON — World coarse grain production in 2007/08 is expected to increase 8 percent to a record 1.06 billion tons, reflecting increased area and higher U.S. yields.

That’s the latest from the USDA’s Economic Research Service.

Foreign coarse grain production is forecast up only 1 percent, as declines for the Former Soviet Union, EU-27, other Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East were more than offset by increases for Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and South America.

China coarse grain production is up slightly, setting another record.

What’s in stocks?

Global coarse grain beginning stocks for 2007/08 were estimated down 28 million tons, following growth in use in 2006/07.

Reduced beginning stocks partly offset the 78-million ton increase in projected production, leaving 2007/08 global coarse grain supplies up 4 percent year-to-year.

Demand strong

World coarse grain consumption is expected to increase 6 percent in 2007/08, as strong demand for feed is coupled with increasing use of coarse grains for biofuels.

This is the fifth straight year of relatively strong growth in demand.

Increasing global consumption is expected to reduce world ending stocks 7 percent to 128 million tons, the lowest in 30 years. Strong demand is projected to boost world trade to a record 123 million tons, supporting U.S. corn exports at a record 63 million tons.

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