West Virginia flirting with a recession

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MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – The state economy of West Virginia is expected to slow significantly during the rest of the year and into 2008, driven by weak growth in mining and construction as well as continued job loss in manufacturing, according to the latest forecast from the West Virginia University College of Business and Economics.
“The West Virginia economy continued to expand through the first half of 2007, but at a significantly slower rate than the previous year,” said George W. Hammond, associate director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Jobs. According to preliminary estimates, the state added just 4,700 jobs during the second quarter of 2006 to second quarter of 2007 period. That’s well down from the 8,600 jobs added during the mid-2005 to mid-2006 period.
The goods-producing sector (mining, construction and manufacturing) lost 1,000 jobs during the past year, while the service-providing sectors combined to generate 5,700 net new jobs.
West Virginia’s inflation-adjusted personal income growth hit 2.8 percent during the second quarter of 2006 to second quarter 2007 period.
“That’s below the pace of the previous four-quarter period and short of the national rate,” Hammond said.
The outlook for the state economy calls for sustained growth during the next five years, assuming the national economy avoids recession.
However, the state forecast calls for modest growth during the next year as the national economy slows in response to the housing correction.
The forecast calls for the state to add only 2,600 jobs on an annual average basis from 2006-2007.
Recession. “This is dangerously close to no growth and suggests that the state will flirt with recession during the next year,” Hammond said.

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