A month ago, the market was talking about wet weather that would potentially slow the start of planting. Traders built a little delayed-planting premium into prices. Then, the weather changed dramatically, and so did the markets.
Grain prices have broken sharply lower the last few days, and the reason given is the effect of the Goldman Sachs fraud charges on the market.
In the nearly two weeks since the USDA’s Planting Intentions Report release, we have seen corn prices decline and soybean prices make small gains. Part of the confusion in the corn is that there was no surprise.
I can only talk about the March 31 USDA Planting Intentions Report so many times. It will soon be old news, but it is still the market mover right now, which is to say that the market is not moving.
USDA’s March crop production report says we have the highest ending stocks of 12 years. That cannot be a good thing, comments grain merchandiser Marlin Clark.
Farmers are facing the need to sell corn for spring cash flow into a weak market that continues lower over the last few days.
I should have learned by now. I have been bitten so often. Once bitten, twice shy. How shy for bitten as much as I have. The thing is, the proper answer for almost any question I get these days should be, “I haven’t got a clue.” I need to get this fixed in my mind […]
The next big news is projected plantings, out the end of March from USDA. If low prices compared to input costs limit corn acres, we can get some pop in the market.
It is hard to get excited about selling me grain when corn has dropped 60 cents, beans are off $1.40 since Jan. 4, and wheat is down almost 90 cents.
The grain markets crashed after the USDA Inventory Report earlier this month.
In my grandmother Faragher’s Manx household was the tradition of the “Qualtagh.” The qualtagh, the first visitor to your home in the New Year, was a harbinger of the household fortunes for the year. A young, vigorous man was as good as it gets. A crusty, broken down old farmer meant you should dig a […]
In NASCAR the so-called “silly season” is that period at the end of the year when teams are realigning. Drivers are going to other teams, teams are changing leadership or swapping drivers. People are hired, fired. Everyone knows this next year is the year. Just ask the Cubs or, for that matter, the Indians. Silly […]
Last week we looked at charts, trying to find signals of direction. Well, we know more about direction now. Corn prices broke sharply on the Chicago Board of Trade this week for no particular reason I can think of. That should give you confidence that you are not wasting your time reading this! Actually, the […]
It is hard to get a handle on where markets are going these days. The easiest method, with the least recriminations when you are wrong, is to look in the rearview mirror.
When prices go up and down, sometimes without reason, we call it “volatile.” When we can explain it, we describe cycles and retracements and corrections. We have a basket full of adjectives to describe the chicken-entrail sketching on our charts. This market we just describe as erratic.
USDA released the Sunday night Crop Progress Report Monday after the close, and it was not pretty. Harvest still drags on, and rain coming into the Midwest this week will not help. Thanksgiving will come and go with corn, and even soybeans, still in the fields. One of the biggest traditions of my youth was […]
December corn futures gained 9 cents in the last five minutes of trade Monday. Traders seemed to be reacting to fears of lack of harvest progress. USDA released new harvest numbers after the close that seemed to confirm the bullishness. December futures had a 24-cent range from high to low Monday. We had a spike […]
There has been a lot of grain market volatility to confuse things. One day, we were up 4 cents and the next down 4 cents. The optimist says we are going higher, the pessimist says we are going lower, and the realist says the market did nothing for those two days.
I have had bird feeders close to the house for 35 years. The bear tore them down a couple of times a few years ago, and we had to stop feeding for a month. Other than that we have always fed a herd of a few hundred “livestock” as I call them. Regular customers Most […]
Two old axioms of the grain trade cropped up in conversations last week. One is that a big crop keeps getting bigger. The other is that the cure for low prices is low prices.