SALEM, Ohio — American farmers heading into spring planting this year don’t expect to see much light at the end of the tunnel. Fertilizer costs have spiked, fuel is getting more expensive and years of low commodity prices continue to squeeze producers.
During a media briefing hosted April 14 by the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm leaders and economists discussed a sector grappling with what AFBF President Zippy Duvall called “generational headwinds.”
According to AFBF economist Faith Parum, the majority of America’s farmers who responded to the organization’s recent nationwide survey — over 5,700 in all — say they cannot afford to purchase enough fertilizer to get them through the year, underscoring just how grim the outlook has become.
“We know that there have been several consecutive years of losses, and our analysis shows that farmers don’t think it’s going to get any better this year,” she said.
The survey drew responses from farms of every size in every state, including Puerto Rico. According to Parum, about 60% of farmers predicted their finances will be worse than the previous year and 36% expecting conditions to hold steady. Only 6% foresee any financial improvement.
Parum said high input costs, exacerbated by the conflict in Iran, have driven sharp increases in the price of anhydrous ammonia, urea, liquid nitrogen and diesel, with urea and farm diesel seeing the largest month‑over‑month jumps. The survey found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all of the fertilizer they need this year, a figure that jumps to 78% in the South, where pre‑booking rates were lowest. Even in the Midwest, about half of farmers don’t believe they’ll be able to purchase their full fertilizer needs.
“This will reduce yields,” Parum warned. “Some may reduce fertilizer applications, or just not plant acres because of the price of fertilizer and the downturn we’ve seen in the farm economy for the last four years.”
The squeeze is hitting farms of all sizes, but smaller operations are particularly vulnerable.
“You can see our small farms, farms under 500 acres, are really impacted by this, with the majority of them not pre‑booking their fertilizer for the year,” Parum said.
Struggle upon struggle
Farmers on the call described the high-stakes day‑to‑day decisions behind those statistics.
In Oklahoma, farmer and rancher Tommy Salisbury said drought and a sudden $150‑per‑ton jump in urea prices forced him to scale back milo acreage and reassess whether he could justify top‑dressing wheat.
“We pay the higher input prices, but we can’t adjust that profit margin in the end to go to the consumer,” he said. “We pay what is at the market. And that’s how we go, and we pray for rain and continue to go on to the next year.”
Lorenda Overman, who farms with her husband on a 180‑year‑old operation in Goldsboro, North Carolina, grows corn, soybeans, sweet potatoes, hay and strawberries; the couple also raises hogs. But she said the basic math of farming no longer works.
They skipped pre‑booking fertilizer last year because prices were already too high, hoping things would cool down. Instead, when the Strait of Hormuz closed, nitrogen prices jumped $100 a ton in the first week, pushing their nitrogen and fertilizer bill from $139 an acre last year to $217 an acre this year.
On a per‑acre basis, Overman’s margins have shrunk dramatically; she’s in the hole before she even factors in higher fuel and other input costs. The plan for now is to adapt.
“We’re going to cut back on our acreage of corn and try to plant a crop that’s a little less fertilizer and nitrogen-dependent, which would be soybeans. We’re also going to spread that fertilizer a little bit thinner,” she said.
Not bridging the gap
AFBF Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis John Newton noted that the roughly $12 billion in “bridge” assistance the administration rolled out earlier this year falls short of what is needed as costs continue to escalate.
“We know that that’s not nearly enough,” Newton said, adding that both row‑crop and specialty‑crop producers are seeking additional relief.
The Farm Bureau has urged the White House and Congress to consider several levers to ease fertilizer prices and improve availability, including changes to shipping rules and trade measures. Newton said the group successfully pushed for a temporary suspension of the Jones Act, allowing goods such as fertilizer and fuel to move more cheaply and quickly between U.S. ports. Other actions remain on the table. Newton said AFBF has asked the administration to lift duties on phosphate imports, which he argued would provide some short‑term price relief. The organization has also raised concerns about potential price gouging in fertilizer markets as supply fears and geopolitical shocks ripple through the system.
Duvall, AFBF president, said the survey results will be relayed directly to the White House and Capitol Hill as Farm Bureau pushes for further relief.
“Bottom line, farmers are feeling like they’re in a no‑win situation,” he said.
He added that the fragile state of the farm economy is not just a rural concern.
“It matters to every family in America, because we all eat, and we’re all depending on our country to be able to feed our own families here in America, and that is why it’s such a national security issue.”
