World ag equipment demand to rise through 2016

DALLAS — World demand for agricultural equipment is expected to increase 6.7 percent per year through 2016 to $173.5 billion. Growth will be driven primarily by sales gains in rapidly developing nations — particularly China, Brazil, and India — as these countries continue to mechanize their agricultural sectors.

Population expansion and strong economic growth in these nations will put increasing pressure on their agricultural sectors to become more efficient and productive, resulting in a rise in farm machinery sales. Agricultural machinery demand in the Asia/Pacific region was more than twice that of any other region in 2011.

China and India will be the primary nations fueling future market advances in this region, although other smaller markets, including Thailand and Indonesia, will also expand rapidly through 2016. The Central and South America region will post strong sales gains through 2016 as well, powered by growth in Brazil and other countries with large, increasingly mechanized agricultural sectors, including Argentina.

Below average

In the industrialized world, North America and Western Europe will both record below-average growth in farm equipment sales through 2016. Demand will be driven by technological advances, as the efficiency gains afforded by newer equipment with more sophisticated technology will make it economically feasible for farmers to replace their machinery more frequently.

Conversely, many farmers delayed replacing their older machinery during the 2008-2010 economic crisis, avoiding major purchases of new machinery because of an uncertain economic environment.

As a result, 2011 was the beginning of a spike in demand for agricultural machinery as better economic conditions prompted farmers to finally replace older machines. Since the average replacement cycle is generally eight or nine years, high demand in 2011 means many farmers may not replace machinery in 2016, constraining agricultural equipment demand through the forecast period.

Plowing and cultivating machinery

Farm tractors, the largest product segment in 2011, represented 30 percent of all agricultural machinery sales. Plowing and cultivating machinery is expected to be the fastest growing product type from 2011 to 2016, expanding 9.1 percent per year as farmers in developing nations purchase larger and more complex tilling equipment to in-crease the productivity of their land.

Parts and attachments demand is projected to increase at the slowest rate, climbing 5.4 percent per annum through 2016 to $27.6 billion as the durability of new machinery continues to improve, limiting repair and maintenance spending.

China’s lead

In 2011, the United States held a slight lead over China as the largest producer of farm machinery, with industry shipments of $23.1 billion. However, the Chinese agricultural equipment manufacturing industry is expected to expand rapidly through 2016, while production growth in the United States will be more moderate.

As a result, China will overtake the United States to become the biggest manufacturer of farm machinery in the world, with 2016 industry shipments 70 percent greater than those of the United States.

Manufacturing output will also rise at a fast pace in Brazil and India, supported by the strong local markets and rapidly industrializing economies in these nations.

This study analyzes the world agricultural equipment industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by type (e.g., farm tractors, harvesting machinery, planting and fertilizing machinery, haying machinery, plowing and cultivating machinery), world region and major country.