If growing corn is a religion among Midwestern farmers, its Vatican is somewhere in central Iowa.
That fact was confirmed in late January when a Des Moines-based ag consulting firm released a report that predicted dire consequences for Iowa farmers, its ag economy and the nation if Congress doesn’t soon approve year-around E15 use.
E15, as you may know, is gasoline that contains 15% ethanol, or 50% more than today’s federally-mandated E10, a 10% blend. While few Americans are clamoring for more ethanol, corn farmers are hollering themselves hoarse for it.
“Without year-round E15,” the report predicted, by “2034 we could be facing ending stocks” — corn carried over from one year to the next — “nearly as large as a full year’s worth of demand… similar to the 1980s farm crisis.”
That’s not an overstatement, noted Monte Shaw, executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association that, in conjunction with the Iowa Corn Growers Association, commissioned the report.
Shaw then offered a terrific example of overstatement: “I think E-15 is going to be the single most important ag-policy decision that’s made this decade. It literally sets us up to move forward or to go into a very bad place.”
Unsurprisingly, his paid-for report supports his heaven-or-hades forecast. “Historically, corn provides the largest share of farm revenue in Iowa…” Trendline yields, however, will “push … production to new record highs” requiring new “demand drivers … to support and sustain … corn production.”
But “Lowering acreage by 10% as forecast by the USDA… will significantly weaken the rural economies that rely on the associated activities of corn production,” including, presumably, ethanol manufacturing.
The report then dives into what it sees as several E15 benefits like sustainable aviation fuel, carbon pipelines and carbon “conservation.” Its thrust from start to finish is gin-clear: farmers need E15 to fulfill their mission to grow billions more bushels of corn.
Not mentioned, however, are the costs all this corn growing will have on Iowa. Presently, for example, the Iowa Cancer Registry notes that “Iowa has the 2nd highest cancer incidence — new cancer — rate in the U.S.”
Also, “Iowa’s overall cancer incidence rate is rising while the U.S. rate is falling. Only six states have rising incidence rates, but Iowa’s is rising the fastest.” So fast, in fact, that the American Cancer Society’s advocacy arm calls it a “cancer crisis.”
Researchers are now examining today’s agriculture as a contributor to the rise; 31 million of Iowa’s 35.7 million acres are intensively farmed.
Other anticipated E15 costs are known. For example, claims the report, a “potential” six billion gallons of “ultra-low-carbon ethanol” — created by simply capturing CO2 while making ethanol, then piping and storing it underground — could be sold by 2040.
The word “potential” does a lot of lifting here, however. First, Iowans, like residents of several other Midwestern states, have repeatedly told their state officials they want nothing to do with ethanol pipelines.
Second, current estimates peg federal subsidies tied to the not-yet-built pipelines at $10 billion and climbing. That open taxpayer checkbook for a controversial, unproven product is far from assured.
And, third, there is still a roaring debate over whether ethanol is even “green,” or — at best — at least environmentally neutral, as its farm proponents preach. Opponents point to decades of independent studies that prove the exact opposite.
Most importantly, the report fails to mention the simplest solution to what it sees as the coming catastrophic “demand gap:” plant something else. After all, there’s no rule, federal or otherwise, that requires farmers to grow corn.
That’s not heresy; it is, in fact, a law. The law of supply and demand.
(The Farm and Food File is published weekly throughout the U.S. and Canada. Contact information is posted at farmandfoodfile.com. © 2026 ag comm)
