Thursday, April 25, 2024

The grain market is just "mostly dead." We still have the race to find out what the average crop is. If we have over-estimated the size, prices will stabilize. If the huge crop is really rolling in, the worst is still ahead of us.

The rainy weather that has plagued farmers since the middle of May took a breather the last few days. Three or four days of sunshine and warm — but not hot — weather has perked up some corn and soybean fields.
tillage

Except for four days of respite, grain markets have been lower almost every day since the March 31 USDA Planting Intentions Report. Ohio farmers, itching to get in wet/cold fields, can only watch prices fall.

After the June 30 USDA acreage and stocks reports, we are looking at the worst one-day trading in years, and the market is struggling to decide what low prices really are.
prevented planting 2019 cornfield

Marlin Clark explains how the markets responded after the USDA Crop Progress report revealed that not much corn and soybeans have been planted yet.

It is no news to anyone reading this that the farmers of Ohio are fighting for their crops and their livelihoods. The hardy farmers of northeast Ohio got parts of two days this weekend to run beans on squishy ground.

Here are grain merchandiser Marlin Clark's conclusions from the current market. First, hindsight is 20/20. Second, timing is more important than actual prices; and, third, the party is over for this year.

Crunch time in the grain markets: If we confirm a huge crop with early harvest, the lows are not yet in.
John Deere planter in action

The expected fast pace of spring planting due to dryness over much of the Midwest has gone away. Marlin Clark offers insight into the grain markets.

The grain markets crashed after the USDA Inventory Report earlier this month.