Will grain prices rebound after Presidents Day holiday?

The long weekend created by the Presidents Day holiday provided an excuse for a sick trading day Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. In early trading Tuesday, Feb. 21, the market has partially rebounded. If this trading continues, we can perk up the long faces created by the Friday break.

The uncertainty of the three days without trading led March corn futures down five and a quarter cents Friday, with the December futures off almost five cents, at 3.94 1/2. We had accomplished a couple of highs in the December that were above the magic $4. The Thursday Feb. 16 trade was at 4.03 3/4.

The soybean futures were double-digit losers. On Friday, the March soybean futures were off over 11 cents, putting in a 10.31 low in the process. That was almost 32 cents below the recent high of 10.63 3/4 posted on Thursday, making a large two-day range.

The wheat futures had a similar day. On Friday, we touched 4.67 1/2 July futures, after a high of 4.88 3/4 on Thursday.

Quite a turnaround on all three grains.

Exports

The wheat futures were not helped by export news that was not positive. Yes, Egypt bought 360,000 tons of wheat. No, it was not from us. It will come from Russia, Romania, and Ukraine. We were too high, and had more freight in addition.

The bean prices were led lower by large losses in the product markets. Bean oil was off 63 points, and meal was down $2.40 cents.

We are coming to the end of our sixth-month marketing window. The northern Brazilian crop is ready for harvest, and the world markets will focus on exports from South America now. Only harvest surprises or early planting news here will affect prices for some time now.

Tuesday reactions

So, how is the rebound doing? Here on Tuesday, just before the break in trading, we have March corn futures up one and a quarter cents at 3.69 1/2 more than a dime below the Thursday high. December corn futures are trading 3.95 3/4, eight cents off the high.

March soybeans are at 10.38 1/4, 24 cents off the high. The November soybeans are at 10.23 1/4, almost 11 cents lower than the Wednesday high of 10.34 1/2.

July wheat futures are at 4.66 1/2, more than 22 cents below the Thursday high.

We can call this a rebound, but the damage done Friday and Monday will take a little work to repair. These are not bullish markets, and so far we have no news to turn them in that direction. We continue to trade a huge harvest.