I used to watch the television series “Fantasy Island.” It was on air from 1977 to 1984. At the beginning of each episode, one of the characters would spot the arrival of the seaplane with the guests aboard for what they anticipated as the vacation of their life.
This character (named Tattoo) would announce to everyone on the island of its approach with the refrain, “The plane, the plane!”
This phrase often still resonates among other memories, reflective of anticipated destinations. The destination is always an important aspect to keep in mind for our lives; however, we should never overlook the journey we are on to arrive at the destination. As I reflect on the dairy industry, it’s on a journey — it is a plane still in flight.
We often target benchmarks within the dairy industry to monitor change and anticipate the things we need to focus on to remain profitable and meet the nutritional needs of the growing population. Most of us are aware of the national trends in the dairy industry of a decreased number of herds, a somewhat stable number of dairy cows, and thus an increase in herd size.
At present, the average number of dairy cows per herd in the U.S. is about 400 cows. However, we also know that very few herds are “average” in size, with many of our herds being less than 200 or over 1,000 cows. In addition, over 65% of the milk supply is from farms with over 1,000 cows.
Projections on the U.S. dairy herd are made so we can be prepared to adjust to these changes during the journey. As of 2025, the U.S. had about 23,609 dairy farms. There have been some projections that the U.S. will have fewer than 20,000 farms by 2030. With the average decrease in the number of farms being 5.25% per year during the past 15 years, the U.S. dairy herd can be projected to consist of about 18,000 herds by 2030.
In Ohio, the number of herds has been decreasing by about 5% per year; thus, by 2030, the number of dairy farms is projected to be about 1,025. However, the average herd size in Ohio is smaller, about 190 cows per herd, in comparison to the U.S. average.
These destination projections are not as important as what we need to be doing during the journey of these industry trends. Some important focal areas include the following:
- Farm profitability: Controlling costs, increasing revenue and risk management.
- Environmental sustainability: Manure management, reducing carbon footprint, water conservation, and being good community partners.
- Animal welfare: Animal comfort, mitigating heat stress and focusing on animal-to-animal interactions and human-to-animal interactions.
- Milk processing: Proximity to the site of milk production and pricing features for high-quality milk and to balance supply and demand.
- Consumers’ interests: Protein intake, enjoyable foods and drinks and the power of cheese.
- Adoption of technology in each area to remain competitive, address labor shortage and be transparent in the care of our animals.
The dairy industry remains in flight, and we are preparing to be resilient to the changes that are occurring. It will be vital that we focus on all of these areas.
It will take an industry being vigilant and partnering together to strengthen all segments, including at the production level, processing, distribution and industry support for the availability of goods and services.
As “we prepare for arrival,” whether it be for 2030 or each decade following, the journey will require preparation.
