By Tracy Turner
Ohio State University
COLUMBUS — Ohio’s agricultural producers could soon be feeling the sting of escalating global trade tensions, as U.S. tariff policies evolve and foreign retaliation ramps up.
Ian Sheldon, a professor in Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences and holder of The Andersons Endowed Chair in Agricultural Marketing, Trade, and Policy in the CFAES Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, is closely monitoring the situation.
He’ll present his insights on April 18 during the Ohio Food Policy Network’s virtual convening in a talk titled, “Current U.S. Trade Policy: What Impact?” Sheldon, an internationally recognized expert in agricultural economics, will offer insight into how the rapidly evolving tariff environment could affect farmers’ bottom lines. Register for the April 18 webinar at bit.ly/OFPN_Tariffs.
The impact of newly proposed and implemented tariffs by the U.S., particularly those aimed at China, and the retaliatory tariffs that have followed will be the focus.
“Given China’s retaliation with tariffs as high as 125% on U.S. agricultural exports, and the U.S. responding with even higher tariffs on Chinese goods, the risks to American farmers are growing by the day,” Sheldon said.
According to Sheldon, these policies could significantly reduce U.S. agricultural exports to China — our third-largest trading partner — and potentially depress prices for key Ohio exports like soybeans and corn.
“Soybeans and corn are the number one and number two agricultural exports from Ohio,” Sheldon said. “With China imposing new tariffs — up to 125% — on U.S. exports, our farmers are at risk of losing even more market share to competitors like Brazil.”
In recent months, the U.S. imposed a series of steep tariffs, including 25% on all steel and aluminum imports, 145% across the board on Chinese goods and additional tariffs on autos and auto parts. China and other major trade partners, including Canada and the European Union, have responded in kind.
Forecasted export losses for 2025 illustrate the scale of the potential economic hit.
In one scenario where the U.S. and China levy high tariffs on each other, along with U.S. and rest-of-the-world retaliatory tariffs, soybean exports could drop by $15.8 billion and corn by $4.4 billion in 2025. Ohio alone could see losses of over $1 billion in soybean exports and $170 million in corn exports, according to a 2024 study.
Beyond reduced export opportunities, producers could face increased costs for farm inputs. Steel and aluminum tariffs may raise prices on farm machinery. Rising port taxes on Chinese shipping and potential tariffs on potash could squeeze farmers’ already tight margins.
Even though the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement currently provides tariff exemptions based on rules of origin, Sheldon warns that continued strain could undermine North American trade relations.
“It’s critical we maintain access to our USMCA partners, especially since Mexico and Canada are our top agricultural export markets,” Sheldon said. “Any new U.S. tariffs could seriously disrupt the integrated nature of North American agriculture.”
Another concern is the need for renewed federal compensation to farmers — similar to the $23.2 billion paid during the 2018–19 trade war via the Market Facilitation Program.
For ongoing updates and analysis, visit the Water Cooler Economics blog at u.osu.edu/aede.
