The rain gauge told the story yesterday. I finally limped out there with my shepherd’s crook leaving holes in the ground. (That’s another story: I am getting old and brittle, and couldn’t find a cane in the house.) I knew it would be bad, since it had been more than a week, but I was […]
Channeling Little Orphan Annie and Gone With the Wind to stay positive in this grain market.
Our short supply for the old grain crop is leading into fundamental numbers that make us think the tight supply continues for the next year.
It’s a seller’s market: Don’t look back at $7 corn and $14 beans and wonder why you didn’t sell those numbers going into harvest!
USDA cut the corn and soybean crop estimates in the Aug. 11 Crop Production Report, but the market has had two minds about the numbers. Initial reaction was for higher prices, then lower prices, then higher prices. This morning, Tuesday, the mood seems negative again. USDA now puts the corn crop at 12.914 billion bushels. […]
Since the direction of the market for the remainder of the crop year depends mostly upon the size of the crops, the Aug. 11 USDA Crop Production Report is a big deal.
The casual view from the windshield is of good crops. The reality is that we are very late, however, and that exposes us to less yield and fears of maturity. A frost scare the end of September would change things a lot.
The grain market needs speculators, but they are fickle. They will set a price to take a profit and liquidate. If there are a lot of them following some trading company’s advice, the market can be adversely affected in a short time. They may even reverse positions, putting huge pressure on the market.
The trouble with fundamental news coming from the government is that the market is forced to trade them as fact. Never mind that Ohio traders do not believe the acres said to be planted in Ohio. They are right until they are proven wrong.
The ugly reality in the Buckeye State: Ohio farmers will have a small crop, but the rest of the nation will not.